Connecticut’s medical cannabis patients spent less money in April than in any preceding month since the start of adult-use sales in January, according to Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) numbers. Per the state regulator, medical cannabis patients spent $11.4 million in sales during April versus $12.6 million in sales in March, even though April sales remained higher than the $8 million in medical cannabis sales reported in January.

There could be several reasons to explain the recent decline in sales, including a 3.8 percent increase in medical cannabis prices between January ($35.68) and March ($37.06) and reported shortages of medicinal product earlier in the year. The average medical cannabis price did fall in April to an average of $36.51, though that number is still more than the average product price in both January and February ($36.11), according to DCP data.

While it is hard to discern a clear pattern from just these numbers, a likely scenario for the state that is bolstered by data from DCP and independent analysis of the market, indicates that Connecticut will in all likelihood continue to see a decline in the number of people utilizing its medical cannabis program, and a commensurable decline in medical cannabis sales, repeating a trend experienced throughout the nation in which medical programs in medical-only states had a steady increase in medical cannabis patients while states that incorporated adult-use programs had a decrease in the number of registered medical cannabis patients.

Connecticut, for example, has seen a consistent decrease in the number of registered medical cannabis patients and caregivers since adult-use sales began in January. In January, the state recorded 48,896 registered patients and 4,372 registered caregivers. In February, the numbers were 48,267 and 4,304, respectively; in March, they were 47,055 and 4,193, respectively; and in April, they were 46.048 and 4,084, respectively. Interestingly, during the same four-month span, the number of medical cannabis certifiers (i.e., certifying physicians) in the state increased from 1,643 to 1,684.

Not surprisingly, fewer medical cannabis products were also sold in April compared with the previous two months, per DCP. Last month, 314, 985 medical cannabis products were sold in legal dispensaries; 399,062 in March; 316, 644 in February; and 227, 246 in January. Those numbers contrast with a month-over-month increase in the number of adult-use products sold, from 144, 495 in January to 259, 499 in April.

One possible takeaway from these numbers is that registered medical cannabis patients are also making purchases from the adult-use menu and new consumers are foregoing medical cannabis registration, dynamics that many other states have experienced as a matter of course as they have integrated adult-use programs into existing medical cannabis programs.

That trend away from medical cannabis is bolstered by data from Brightfield Group that projects decreasing medical cannabis sales in Connecticut at least through 2028. Specific to the medical market and inclusive of all product types, Brightfield does project a rise in overall medical cannabis sales in 2024, from $158 million in 2023 to $166.9 million the following year, but after that the numbers are projected to see annual declines to $164,7 in 2025, $152 million in 2026, $145.5 in 2027, and $140.6 in 2028. Suffice to say, the adult-use market in Connecticut is projected to be on a consistently upward track, with 2028 numbers far in excess of those projected for the state’s medical cannabis market.

To address concerns about the state’s medical cannabis program and make sure that Connecticut continues to meet the needs of its medical cannabis patients, a bill is under consideration that would create a cannabis ombudsman to advocate on behalf of patients.

House Majority Leader Jason Rojas (D-East Hartford) sponsored the bill, which he first introduced in February. “We thought creating a person that can serve as a go between patients and the department might be the appropriate person,” he said at the time.