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Legalize Cannabis Campaign 2016

2016 is shaping up to be a banner year in the fight to end cannabis prohibition.  In 2012, we saw the recreational cannabis revolution begin as Washington and Colorado voted to legalize. In 2014, we built on that momentum, with successful ballot initiatives legalizing recreational cannabis in Alaska, Oregon and Washington DC.

This year, we will likely see the citizens of six states vote on legalizing rec, with four more deciding on whether to launch medical programs. If we are even moderately successful, 2017 will see more than a quarter of the US population living in a jurisdiction where cannabis is legal for both medical and recreational purposes. That would be a truly remarkable state of affairs, one that would have been unthinkable just five years ago.

The Medical Initiatives

On the medical side, the Florida initiative has already qualified for the ballot. We expect to see medical initiatives qualify in Ohio, Missouri and Arkansas as well.

With a population of nearly 20 million people (more than 6% of the entire US population), Florida represents the biggest prize on the medical side. The Florida initiative is actually a constitutional amendment, which means it requires 60% of the vote in order to pass.

60% is a heavy lift, but far from impossible. In 2014, a similar initiative narrowly failed, receiving 58% of the vote.  This “loss” secured a larger majority than any past victorious cannabis measure. No individual candidate has won a statewide race in Florida by a margin that large in the last ten years.

Florida has a well-funded campaign, led by attorney John Morgan, who donated millions to the last effort and has pledged millions more this time. The opposition may be more organized this year, but the measure still has a good chance of passing.

Ohioans rejected both medical and recreational cannabis in a single measure in 2015. In 2016, they will vote on medical only. The 2015 measure was severely flawed—it granted an oligopoly to the ten groups funding the measure—but this year’s initiative is much better crafted.

Missouri has run a strong campaign and should qualify shortly. Arkansas is a bit of a surprise, but a measure in 2012, backed by no significant campaign, just barely failed. If we can get on the ballot in Arkansas, a modest effort will probably put us over the top.

The Recreational Contests

Six states will likely vote on whether to legalize recreational cannabis. Measures have already qualified in Nevada and Maine. The Adult Use of Marijuana Act (AUMA) will qualify soon in California, as will the initiative in Massachusetts.  Arizona and Michigan also stand a chance of voting on rec this year.

The Massachusetts initiative is on pace to qualify by July. Assuming that happens, it is highly likely to pass, despite some resistance from the political establishment there. Nevada and Arizona, with large blocks of conservative voters, will both be more difficult. That being said, there remains many reasons for optimism in both states.

The Maine initiative is on the ballot and likely to pass, despite nearly being derailed by the disqualification of a number of signatures. A successful lawsuit restored the signatures and qualified the initiative, which stands a solid chance of passing.

The Michigan campaign is facing a battle over the validity of certain signatures. It remains to be seen whether Michigan Legalize will have enough valid signatures by the June 1st qualification deadline. If it does qualify, we expect it to pass. Michigan has a strong cannabis culture, and by some estimates, the second largest medical market in the US.

That brings us to California, the largest cannabis market in the US and the most important state in play in the 2016 election.  The California race is significant for a number of reasons, beginning with its sheer size. With more than 38 million residents, California represents 12% of the US population.

The Arc View group, a consortium of cannabis investors, estimates that the US saw $5.4 billion in legal retail cannabis sales in 2015. Of that $5.4 billion, Arc View estimates that $2.7 billion came from California’s medical cannabis market.

That half of all US cannabis sales came from one state is astounding on its own. Now factor in that these were medical sales only. The California recreational market will be larger than its medical market by orders of magnitude.  With federal prohibition keeping each state’s cannabis commerce separate, that makes California the world’s largest cannabis economy.

The California race also has outsize importance because of California’s status as a leader and bellwether of American culture. As California goes, so goes the rest of the US (eventually).  California is also, along with Oregon, the heart of cannabis culture, both nationally and globally. A loss here would slow momentum and hurt legalization efforts everywhere.

Several competing groups have produced several competing initiatives in California. After months of campaigning, signature gathering, competing and ultimately consolidating, we are down to one initiative that will qualify, the Adult Use of Marijuana Act (AUMA).

AUMA legalizes marijuana and allows all adults to possess up to one ounce of flower and eight grams of concentrates. It allows home grows of up to six plants and establishes broad, retroactive sentencing reform.

The measure establishes a framework for licensing and operating cannabis businesses in California. It creates 19 different types of licenses and allows some vertical integration. It establishes a tax structure and offers rules in a variety of areas, including packaging, labeling, advertising and marketing.

Is AUMA perfect? Far from it.  But if we wait around for a perfect measure, we will be waiting forever.  I prefer to make cannabis legal and available to all adults, end the mass incarceration and other devastation that accompanies prohibition, and work out the details over time.

We faced a similar issue in Oregon, my home state, with Measure 91.  Legalization initiatives, like all legislation, represent compromises.  Measure 91 was a flawed law in many ways, but not nearly as flawed as prohibition. Over the two legislative sessions since its passage, we have fixed many of those issues and created a system that can serve as a model for other states. I see no reason why California can’t do something similar.

The cannabis revolution continues to advance, state by state, day by day. This year we have the opportunity to some make major gains, including California, the biggest prize on the board.

But these laws won’t pass on their own. It takes money and time to run these campaigns. If you believe in this cause, think about donating one or the other. The day my home state of Oregon legalized cannabis was one of the greatest days of my life. It was all the more meaningful because I invested my own time and money into making sure that it happened.

Each state has an organization to run its campaign. National groups like Drug Policy Alliance and Marijuana Policy Project are raising and spending millions of dollars to make this dream a reality. Contact one of these groups to see how you can get involved in the campaigns. Let’s make Election Day 2016 another major milestone for our industry and our community.

Matt Walstatter

Matt Walstatter

Matt Walstatter and his wife, Meghan, are the owners of Pure Green, a patient owned and operated dispensary in Portland, Oregon. They have jointly owned and operated cultivation centers since 2001. Their dispensary opened in 2013. Matt can be reached at (971) 242-8561 or [email protected].

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