By Matt Walstatter

Last week, members of the Oregon Cannabis Association got together for our Time Capsule event.

About 150 members and guests offered relics from today’s world of cannabis and made predictions for the future. We’ll open the time capsule in three years to see how things have changed and who correctly prognosticated the state of the Cannabis Industry in 2019.

We put a variety of artifacts into the time capsule, including an Oregon Liquor Control Commission license application, a map of existing Oregon dispensaries, sample product packaging, and stickers and swag from a number of cannabis companies.

Every attendee was also invited to write a prediction about the cannabis industry circa 2019. Our special guest, U.S. Rep Earl Blumenauer, D-OR, spoke about the progress we have made so far and the challenges that lie ahead. He also made a prediction of his own: That cannabis prohibition in the U.S. could itself be a relic of the past by the time we open the time capsule in 2019.

More legal cannabis

In that spirit, I offer my own predictions for the state of the cannabis community three years hence.

• For starters, I expect it to be a much, much larger community come 2019. During the next three years, we will probably see the passage of medical marijuana laws in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Georgia and Kentucky, among others.
• The year 2016 will likely see ballot initiatives to legalize recreational cannabis in California, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Massachusetts and Maine. I believe they will all pass. If they do, more than 25 percent of the U.S. population will live in a state where cannabis is legal for both medical and recreational purposes.
• We can also expect to see the legislatures of Vermont and Rhode Island act to legalize recreational use of cannabis. These would be the first states to enact legalization through the Legislature, as opposed to a vote of the people. It’s certainly not a stretch to think that other states might follow.

Federal progress

Yes, 25 percent represents a very significant portion of our population. Significant enough, I believe, to trigger some changes in federal law. We may not see the end of federal prohibition by 2019, but I expect we will have made some substantial progress along that road.

At a minimum, I believe the Cannabis Industry will be banking openly and legally, like any other industry in the country. I think we may also see some relief from the punitive taxes that result from Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code, perhaps in the form of legislation declaring that 280E no longer applies to state legal cannabis firms.

Rescheduling of cannabis, from Schedule 1 to Schedule 2 or 3 seems like a reasonable possibility over the next three years. And while I don’t think descheduling is the most likely outcome by 2019, it certainly remains a very realistic possibility.

The Cannabis Industry

Over the next three years, look for the consolidation of medical and recreational cannabis to pick up steam. This may alarm medical marijuana advocates, but it is not necessarily a cause for concern.

For example, allowing medical patients to shop for cannabis tax-free in recreational stores, as we hope will happen in Oregon, creates more access to tax-free medicine for patients.

Allowing commercial growers to grow for both medical patients and recreational customers in one facility makes cultivation more efficient. This will lead to more medicine for patients, medicine that will be available at a lower cost since it will be less expensive to grow.

While flower sales have consistently accounted for at least two thirds of our revenue at Pure Green, we have seen a steady increase in sales of concentrates, edibles and topicals. I expect this trend to continue.

Here in Oregon, recreational customers can only purchase flower, clones and seeds. When the full gamut of products becomes available to recreational customers, we will see sales of concentrates, edibles and topicals grow dramatically. They should continue to grow for many years to come as people become more familiar with the full range of options available.

The world of cannabis is changing fast. It can be hard to know what’s coming in three weeks, much less three years. Yet many of us are betting our futures on our own vision of the future our community and our industry.

The stakes are high and the possibilities are limitless, which is exactly what makes it so much fun to make these kinds of predictions.

What do you think the world of cannabis will look like in 2019?